troll-patrol/src/analysis.rs

use crate::{BridgeInfo, BridgeInfoType};
use lox_library::proto::{level_up::LEVEL_INTERVAL, trust_promotion::UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL};
use nalgebra::DVector;
use statrs::distribution::{Continuous, MultivariateNormal};
use std::{
    cmp::min,
    collections::{BTreeMap, HashSet},
};

const SCALE_BRIDGE_IPS: u32 = 8;

/// Provides a function for predicting which countries block this bridge
pub trait Analyzer {
    /// Evaluate open-entry bridge. Returns true if blocked, false otherwise.
    fn stage_one(
        &self,
        confidence: f64,
        bridge_ips: &[u32],
        bridge_ips_today: u32,
        negative_reports: &[u32],
        negative_reports_today: u32,
    ) -> bool;

    /// Evaluate invite-only bridge without positive reports. Return true if
    /// blocked, false otherwise.
    fn stage_two(
        &self,
        confidence: f64,
        bridge_ips: &[u32],
        bridge_ips_today: u32,
        negative_reports: &[u32],
        negative_reports_today: u32,
    ) -> bool;

    /// Evaluate invite-only bridge with positive reports. Return true if
    /// blocked, false otherwise.
    fn stage_three(
        &self,
        confidence: f64,
        bridge_ips: &[u32],
        bridge_ips_today: u32,
        negative_reports: &[u32],
        negative_reports_today: u32,
        positive_reports: &[u32],
        positive_reports_today: u32,
    ) -> bool;
}

/// Accepts an analyzer, information about a bridge, and a confidence value.
/// Returns a set of country codes where the bridge is believed to be blocked.
pub fn blocked_in(
    analyzer: &dyn Analyzer,
    bridge_info: &BridgeInfo,
    confidence: f64,
    date: u32,
) -> HashSet<String> {
    // TODO: Re-evaluate past days if we have backdated reports
    let mut blocked_in = HashSet::<String>::new();
    let today = date;
    let age = today - bridge_info.first_seen;
    for (country, info) in &bridge_info.info_by_country {
        if info.blocked {
            // Assume bridges never become unblocked
            blocked_in.insert(country.to_string());
        } else {
            // Get today's values
            let new_map_binding = BTreeMap::<BridgeInfoType, u32>::new();
            // TODO: Evaluate on yesterday if we don't have data for today?
            let today_info = match info.info_by_day.get(&today) {
                Some(v) => v,
                None => &new_map_binding,
            };
            let bridge_ips_today = match today_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::BridgeIps) {
                Some(&v) => v / SCALE_BRIDGE_IPS,
                None => 0,
            };
            let negative_reports_today = match today_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::NegativeReports) {
                Some(&v) => v,
                None => 0,
            };
            let positive_reports_today = match today_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::PositiveReports) {
                Some(&v) => v,
                None => 0,
            };

            let num_days = min(age, UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL);

            // Get time series for last num_days
            let mut bridge_ips = vec![0; num_days as usize];
            let mut negative_reports = vec![0; num_days as usize];
            let mut positive_reports = vec![0; num_days as usize];

            for i in 0..num_days {
                let date = today - num_days + i - 1;
                let new_map_binding = BTreeMap::<BridgeInfoType, u32>::new();
                let day_info = match info.info_by_day.get(&date) {
                    Some(v) => v,
                    None => &new_map_binding,
                };
                bridge_ips[i as usize] = match day_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::BridgeIps) {
                    Some(&v) => v / SCALE_BRIDGE_IPS,
                    None => 0,
                };
                negative_reports[i as usize] = match day_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::NegativeReports)
                {
                    Some(&v) => v,
                    None => 0,
                };
                positive_reports[i as usize] = match day_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::PositiveReports)
                {
                    Some(&v) => v,
                    None => 0,
                };
            }

            // Evaluate using appropriate stage based on age of the bridge
            if age < UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL {
                // open-entry bridge
                if analyzer.stage_one(
                    confidence,
                    &bridge_ips,
                    bridge_ips_today,
                    &negative_reports,
                    negative_reports_today,
                ) {
                    blocked_in.insert(country.to_string());
                }
            } else if age
                < UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL + LEVEL_INTERVAL[1] + LEVEL_INTERVAL[2] + UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL
            {
                // invite-only bridge without 30+ days of historical data on
                // positive reports
                if analyzer.stage_two(
                    confidence,
                    &bridge_ips,
                    bridge_ips_today,
                    &negative_reports,
                    negative_reports_today,
                ) {
                    blocked_in.insert(country.to_string());
                }
            } else {
                // invite-only bridge that has been up long enough that it
                // might have 30+ days of historical data on positive reports
                if analyzer.stage_three(
                    confidence,
                    &bridge_ips,
                    bridge_ips_today,
                    &negative_reports,
                    negative_reports_today,
                    &positive_reports,
                    positive_reports_today,
                ) {
                    blocked_in.insert(country.to_string());
                }
            }
        }
    }
    blocked_in
}

// Analyzer implementations

/// Dummy example that never thinks bridges are blocked
pub struct ExampleAnalyzer {}

impl Analyzer for ExampleAnalyzer {
    fn stage_one(
        &self,
        _confidence: f64,
        _bridge_ips: &[u32],
        _bridge_ips_today: u32,
        _negative_reports: &[u32],
        _negative_reports_today: u32,
    ) -> bool {
        false
    }

    fn stage_two(
        &self,
        _confidence: f64,
        _bridge_ips: &[u32],
        _bridge_ips_today: u32,
        _negative_reports: &[u32],
        _negative_reports_today: u32,
    ) -> bool {
        false
    }

    fn stage_three(
        &self,
        _confidence: f64,
        _bridge_ips: &[u32],
        _bridge_ips_today: u32,
        _negative_reports: &[u32],
        _negative_reports_today: u32,
        _positive_reports: &[u32],
        _positive_reports_today: u32,
    ) -> bool {
        false
    }
}

/// Model data as multivariate normal distribution
pub struct NormalAnalyzer {
    max_threshold: u32,
    scaling_factor: f64,
}

impl NormalAnalyzer {
    pub fn new(max_threshold: u32, scaling_factor: f64) -> Self {
        Self {
            max_threshold,
            scaling_factor,
        }
    }

    // Returns the mean vector, vector of individual standard deviations, and
    // covariance matrix
    fn stats(data: &[&[u32]]) -> (Vec<f64>, Vec<f64>, Vec<f64>) {
        let n = data.len();

        // Compute mean and standard deviation vectors
        let (mean_vec, sd_vec) = {
            let mut mean_vec = Vec::<f64>::new();
            let mut sd_vec = Vec::<f64>::new();
            for var in data {
                // Compute mean
                let mut sum = 0.0;
                for count in *var {
                    sum += *count as f64;
                }
                let mean = sum / var.len() as f64;

                // Compute standard deviation
                let mut sum = 0.0;
                for count in *var {
                    sum += (*count as f64 - mean).powi(2);
                }
                let sd = (sum / var.len() as f64).sqrt();
                mean_vec.push(mean);
                sd_vec.push(sd);
            }
            (mean_vec, sd_vec)
        };

        // Compute covariance matrix
        let cov_mat = {
            let mut cov_mat = Vec::<f64>::new();
            // We don't need to recompute Syx, but we currently do
            for i in 0..n {
                for j in 0..n {
                    cov_mat.push({
                        let var1 = data[i];
                        let var1_mean = mean_vec[i];

                        let var2 = data[j];
                        let var2_mean = mean_vec[j];

                        assert_eq!(var1.len(), var2.len());

                        let mut sum = 0.0;
                        for index in 0..var1.len() {
                            sum +=
                                (var1[index] as f64 - var1_mean) * (var2[index] as f64 - var2_mean);
                        }
                        sum / var1.len() as f64
                    });
                }
            }
            cov_mat
        };

        (mean_vec, sd_vec, cov_mat)
    }
}

impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
    /// Evaluate open-entry bridge based on only today's data
    fn stage_one(
        &self,
        _confidence: f64,
        _bridge_ips: &[u32],
        bridge_ips_today: u32,
        _negative_reports: &[u32],
        negative_reports_today: u32,
    ) -> bool {
        negative_reports_today > self.max_threshold
            || f64::from(negative_reports_today)
                > self.scaling_factor * f64::from(bridge_ips_today) * SCALE_BRIDGE_IPS as f64
    }

    /// Evaluate invite-only bridge based on last 30 days
    fn stage_two(
        &self,
        confidence: f64,
        bridge_ips: &[u32],
        bridge_ips_today: u32,
        negative_reports: &[u32],
        negative_reports_today: u32,
    ) -> bool {
        assert!(bridge_ips.len() >= UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL as usize);
        assert_eq!(bridge_ips.len(), negative_reports.len());

        let alpha = 1.0 - confidence;

        let (mean_vec, sd_vec, cov_mat) = Self::stats(&[bridge_ips, negative_reports]);
        let bridge_ips_mean = mean_vec[0];
        let negative_reports_mean = mean_vec[1];
        let bridge_ips_sd = sd_vec[0];
        let negative_reports_sd = sd_vec[1];

        let mvn = MultivariateNormal::new(mean_vec, cov_mat).unwrap();
        if mvn.pdf(&DVector::from_vec(vec![
            bridge_ips_today as f64,
            negative_reports_today as f64,
        ])) < alpha
        {
            (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean + negative_reports_sd
                || (bridge_ips_today as f64) < bridge_ips_mean - bridge_ips_sd
        } else {
            false
        }
    }

    /// Evaluate invite-only bridge with lv3+ users submitting positive reports
    fn stage_three(
        &self,
        confidence: f64,
        bridge_ips: &[u32],
        bridge_ips_today: u32,
        negative_reports: &[u32],
        negative_reports_today: u32,
        positive_reports: &[u32],
        positive_reports_today: u32,
    ) -> bool {
        assert!(bridge_ips.len() >= UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL as usize);
        assert_eq!(bridge_ips.len(), negative_reports.len());
        assert_eq!(bridge_ips.len(), positive_reports.len());

        let alpha = 1.0 - confidence;

        let (mean_vec, sd_vec, cov_mat) =
            Self::stats(&[bridge_ips, negative_reports, positive_reports]);
        let bridge_ips_mean = mean_vec[0];
        let negative_reports_mean = mean_vec[1];
        let positive_reports_mean = mean_vec[2];
        let bridge_ips_sd = sd_vec[0];
        let negative_reports_sd = sd_vec[1];
        let positive_reports_sd = sd_vec[2];

        let mvn = MultivariateNormal::new(mean_vec, cov_mat).unwrap();
        if mvn.pdf(&DVector::from_vec(vec![
            bridge_ips_today as f64,
            negative_reports_today as f64,
            positive_reports_today as f64,
        ])) < alpha
        {
            (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean + negative_reports_sd
                || (bridge_ips_today as f64) < bridge_ips_mean - bridge_ips_sd
                || (positive_reports_today as f64) < positive_reports_mean - positive_reports_sd
        } else {
            false
        }
    }
}